Republican Primary season: Races to watch in the build-up to the mid-terms.
Author - Mackenzie France
Mackenzie France is a Policy Fellow of The Pinsker Centre, a campus-based think tank which facilitates discussion on global affairs and free speech. The views in this article are the author’s own.
Primary season is Christmas come early to keen spectators of American politics , especially in the lead up to the mid-terms. In this current round of elections there are two Republican primaries that should be of particular interest, as they have important implications for the future direction of the GOP.
Starting with Wyoming at large congressional district, the primary here has probably garnered the most national attention. The famous (or infamous, depending on which Republicans you ask) Liz Cheney is fighting her toughest primary yet after a series of moves that put her in conflict with her party. A vocal anti-Trump critic and one of two Republican members of the January 6th Committee, her Wyoming GOP base have been infuriated with Cheney at late. In February 2022, Cheney was censured by her local Wyoming Republican Party for her vote to impeach Donald Trump, a sign of a truly fractious relationship with her local GOP. Her opponent, Harriet Hageman is a former attorney and vociferous pro-Trump conservative, she has characterised Cheney as not ‘representing conservatives’ and attacked her criticism of President Trump, by whom she has been endorsed. The race is a clear bellwether on the state of the Republican party and a real test of Trump’s grip on it.
Polling is scarce for the primary and was conducted before Trump’s endorsement, but the picture at the end of 2021 was a commanding lead of 20% for Hageman over Cheney. However, Cheney maintains a huge fundraising advantage over her opponent of nearly $2 million dollars since the beginning of 2022 (As of April) and her name recognition remains considerably higher. Wyoming also uses ‘Open primaries’, so Democrats and Independents will also be voting. Whether this is enough to save Cheney though is a point of contention, with some analysts like 538 arguing that the maths simply isn’t there for Cheney in this strategy.
The Wyoming at large Republican primary occurs on the 16th of August 2022. This race remains one to watch to determine the future of the Republican party and test whether the GOP really is just the Trump party.
The second race to garner national attention is the Alaska at large special election primary. The immensely popular incumbent Representative Don Young passed away in March 2022, leaving Alaska’s only congressional district vacant.
Alaska’s primaries are non-partisan, which means all candidates appear on the ballot, of which there are over 30. This race has received national attention because former governor Sarah Palin has decided to make a return to frontline politics. She left office over 10 years ago after a loss as John McCain’s candidate for Vice President in the 2008 Presidential election. Her entry into the race shocked many political commentators and ramped up interest in the race where she has moved into ‘pole position’. Palin’s main opponent seems to be Republican Nick Begich III. The language in the primary seems to be a debate over conservative credentials, with Palin lauding her endorsement from President Trump, and Begich selling his longstanding conservative activism within the Alaskan Republican Party.
Polling has the primary on a knife edge, with a 3% lead for Palin over Begich in a poll of 12 candidates. Indeed, Alaska’s ranked choice voting system also adds to the unpredictability of this race. A non-partisan ranked choice primary could translate into Palin facing a democrat, in which case she would almost certainly win given Alaska’s Republican nature. However, she could end up facing another Republican, like Begich. This makes matters much more complicated for Palin as a more moderate Republican may rally democrats and splinter Republican voting, in which case she would not be the clear favourite. Such a wide field may benefit Palin as she has near-universal name recognition in Alaska and the recent populist trend of the GOP could also be a factor too. Crucially, this race will come down to Palin’s legacy in Alaska and how a blindsided state reacts to her unexpected bid.
The Alaska at large special election primary is on the 11th of June with the special election being held on the 16th of August. National observers will be watching closely to see if Palin can successfully burst back onto the national political scene. This race will also be a litmus test for whether Trump’s endorsement can carry a candidate to victory.
Primary season in 2022 is shaping up to be a battle for the future direction of the GOP, Trump endorsed challengers and Trump critics are facing tough primary battles across the country as the GOP reckons with the legacy of President Trump and charts a future identity for itself. Whether the Republican party will be the party of Liz Cheney or Sarah Palin remains to be seen, but one thing is for sure - don’t let anyone ever tell you primary season is boring.